Homes didn’t cost a penny in 1975 but they sure were much cheaper. If we had those prices today, you wouldn’t need a mortgage – just a nice down payment and a credit card
Below is an updated sales price history for Northern Virginia from 1975 to the present. The chart shows the overall stability and strength of the Northern Virginia market. (These numbers cover Fairfax County, Arlington County and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Fall Church.)
The chart show the price change year over year, over the prior 5 years and over the prior 10 year period. For example, the 1984 five year average represents 1980-1984. The 1985 five year average represents 1981-1985.
Here are a few highlights:
* Only 5 years show a decline in the average price. And only one of those years was a double digit drop.
* There are only three 5 year periods when the average price went down and they were during the recent housing crisis
*There has never been a rolling 10 year period since 1984 with declining average prices
My conclusion? As I have frequently said, homes are not stocks or short term trades. As a financial asset, from a long term historical perspective, housing has done well in this area. No one knows what the market will do next year but the chart indicates that one has reason to optimistic over the long term.
Of course, past performance is no indicator of future results so I could be wrong. I sure hope not.
| Avg price | 1 yr chg | 5 yr chg | 10 yr chg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | $58,739 | |||
| 1976 | $62,373 | 6.2% | ||
| 1977 | $66,722 | 7.0% | ||
| 1978 | $71,639 | 7.4% | ||
| 1979 | $79,389 | 10.8% | 35.2% | |
| 1980 | $90,744 | 13.7% | 45.5% | |
| 1981 | $100,050 | 10.3% | 50.0% | |
| 1982 | $103,631 | 3.6% | 44.7% | |
| 1983 | $105,388 | 1.7% | 32.0% | |
| 1984 | $108,049 | 2.5% | 19.1% | 83.9% |
| 1985 | $113,120 | 4.7% | 13.1% | 81.4% |
| 1986 | $121,922 | 7.8% | 17.7% | 82.7% |
| 1987 | $142,163 | 16.6% | 34.9% | 98.4% |
| 1988 | $162,850 | 14.6% | 50.7% | 104.0% |
| 1989 | $174,975 | 7.4% | 54.7% | 92.8% |
| 1990 | $174,616 | -0.2% | 43.2% | 74.5% |
| 1991 | $204,886 | 17.3% | 44.1% | 97.7% |
| 1992 | $202,534 | -1.1% | 24.4% | 92.2% |
| 1993 | $209,381 | 3.4% | 19.7% | 93.8% |
| 1994 | $210,557 | 0.6% | 20.6% | 86.1% |
| 1995 | $211,098 | 0.3% | 3.0% | 73.1% |
| 1996 | $214,102 | 1.4% | 5.7% | 50.6% |
| 1997 | $220,932 | 3.2% | 5.5% | 35.7% |
| 1998 | $229,151 | 3.7% | 8.8% | 31.0% |
| 1999 | $238,496 | 4.1% | 13.0% | 36.6% |
| 2000 | $252,374 | 5.8% | 17.9% | 23.2% |
| 2001 | $285,159 | 13.0% | 29.1% | 40.8% |
| 2002 | $319,293 | 12.0% | 39.3% | 52.5% |
| 2003 | $364,684 | 14.2% | 52.9% | 73.2% |
| 2004 | $441,253 | 21.0% | 74.8% | 109.0% |
| 2005 | $537,116 | 21.7% | 88.4% | 150.9% |
| 2006 | $537,741 | 0.1% | 68.4% | 143.4% |
| 2007 | $538,463 | 0.1% | 47.7% | 135.0% |
| 2008 | $461,039 | -14.4% | 4.5% | 93.3% |
| 2009 | $431,018 | -6.5% | -19.8% | 70.8% |
| 2010 | $469,018 | 8.8% | -12.8% | 64.5% |
| 2011 | $483,160 | 3.0% | -10.3% | 51.3% |
| 2012 | $504,338 | 4.4% | 9.4% | 38.3% |
| 2013 | $540,034 | 7.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% |
| 2014 | $551,220 | 2.1% | 17.5% | 2.6% |
| 2015 | $558,988 | 1.4% | 15.7% | 4.0% |
| 2016 | $556,368 | -0.5% | 10.3% | 3.3% |
| 2017 | $579,694 | 4.2% | 7.3% | 25.7% |
| 2018 | $590,582 | 1.9% | 7.1% | 37.0% |
| 2019 | $614,236 | 4.0% | 9.9% | 31.0% |
| 2020 | $670,408 | 9.1% | 20.5% | 38.8% |
| 2021 | $714,208 | 6.5% | 23.2% | 41.6% |
| 2022 | $758,325 | 6.2% | 28.4% | 40.4% |
| 2023 | $789,902 | 4.2% | 28.6% | 43.3% |
| Average | 5.8% | 26.0% | 63.8% |
The numbers come from Real Estate Business Intelligence and NVAR as published in the Sun Gazette on June 27 2019. The 5 year and 10 year average calculations are my numbers. Depending upon the source and when it was updated, the annual sale numbers may differ by a few thousand here or there but never significantly enough to change the overall picture.
