Average Real Estate Sales Prices for Northern Virginia Since 1975

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Homes didn’t cost a penny in 1975 but they sure were much cheaper. If we had those prices today, you wouldn’t need a mortgage – just a nice down payment and a credit card

Below is an updated sales price history for Northern Virginia from 1975 to the present.  The chart shows the overall stability and strength of the Northern Virginia market.  (These numbers cover Fairfax County, Arlington County and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Fall Church.)

The chart show the price change year over year,  over the prior 5 years and over the prior 10 year period.  For example, the 1984 five year average represents 1980-1984.  The 1985 five year average represents 1981-1985.

Here are a few highlights:

* Only 5 years over the last 42 show a decline in the average price.  And only one of those years was a double digit drop.

* There are only three 5 year periods when the average price went down and they were during the recent housing crisis

*There are no 10 year periods with declining average and my guess is we are safe on that one for some time as the numbers in 2014 are above the previous peak of 2007.

My conclusion?  As I have frequently said, house are not stocks or short term trades.  As a financial asset, housing has historically done well in this area with a proper time horizon.  No one knows what the market will do next year but the chart indicates that one has reason to optimistic over the long term.

Of course, past performance is no indicator of future results so I could be wrong.  I sure hope not.

 Avg price1 yr chg5 yr chg10 yr chg
1975$58,739
1976$62,3736.2%
1977$66,7227.0%
1978$71,6397.4%
1979$79,83811.4%35.9%
1980$90,74413.7%45.5%
1981$100,05010.3%50.0%
1982$103,6313.6%44.7%
1983$105,3881.7%32.0%
1984$108,0492.5%19.1%83.9%
1985$113,1204.7%13.1%81.4%
1986$121,9227.8%17.7%82.7%
1987$142,16316.6%34.9%98.4%
1988$162,85014.6%50.7%104.0%
1989$174,9757.4%54.7%92.8%
1990$174,616-0.2%43.2%74.5%
1991$204,88617.3%44.1%97.7%
1992$202,534-1.1%24.4%92.2%
1993$209,3813.4%19.7%93.8%
1994$210,5570.6%20.6%86.1%
1995$211,0980.3%3.0%73.1%
1996$214,1021.4%5.7%50.6%
1997$220,9323.2%5.5%35.7%
1998$229,1513.7%8.8%31.0%
1999$238,4964.1%13.0%36.6%
2000$252,3745.8%17.9%23.2%
2001$285,15913.0%29.1%40.8%
2002$319,29312.0%39.3%52.5%
2003$364,68414.2%52.9%73.2%
2004$441,25321.0%74.8%109.0%
2005$537,11621.7%88.4%150.9%
2006$537,7410.1%68.4%143.4%
2007$538,4630.1%47.7%135.0%
2008$461,039-14.4%4.5%93.3%
2009$431,018-6.5%-19.8%70.8%
2010$469,0188.8%-12.8%64.5%
2011$483,1603.0%-10.3%51.3%
2012$504,3384.4%9.4%38.3%
2013$540,0347.1%25.3%22.4%
2014$551,2202.1%17.5%2.6%
2015$558,9881.4%15.7%4.0%
2016$556,368-0.5%10.3%3.3%
Average5.9%27.5%69.5%

The numbers come from Real Estate Business Intelligence and NVAR as published in the Sun Gazette on January 26, 2017.  The 5 year and 10 year average calculations are my numbers.  Depending upon the source and when it was updated, the annual sale numbers may differ by a few thousand here or there but never significantly enough to change the overall picture.

 

 

 

 

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